The hurricane season for our region which covers the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico starts tomorrow, Saturday, June 1, 2019.
So far this year, we have had one off-season, short lived, subtropical storm Andrea, which developed a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda on May 20.
Predictions from the major hurricane season forecasting agencies agree that near normal tropical cyclone activity is expected in our region this year. The Colorado State University team in their April 4 forecast, predicted that there will be thirteen named storms, of which five will develop into hurricanes, and with two attaining major hurricane status. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center scientists on May 23, predicted a 45 percent probability of near normal cyclone activity this year. They have forecasted the formation of nine to 15 named storms of which four to eight will become hurricanes including two to four major hurricanes.
Regardless of the pre-season predictions, the Saint Lucia Met Services advises all Saint Lucian residents and interests in the region to exercise due diligence in their planning and preparation for this, and every hurricane season. We encourage you to consistently follow regional weather developments and to pay particular attention to local weather reports, advisories and bulletins issued by the Saint Lucia Meteorological Services. The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) will also be issuing important instructions and information which you are strongly advised to follow.
Pre-season rainfall over Saint Lucia this year has generally been normal to slightly below normal and this trend is likely to continue into July. In spite of this projection, bear in mind that heavy rainfall episodes are an expected feature of our rainy season and the occurrence of flooding and landslides will remain a major concern.
The Saint Lucia Meteorological Services will as usual be utilizing all available communication channels, including local and social media, to transmit timely information to the Saint Lucian populace and other interested parties. The public is invited to send us feedback on our performance during this season, especially following the passage of impactful weather systems.
The hurricane season ends on Nov. 30, 2019.